In the final weeks of June, U.S. stock markets showed surprising strength, overcoming renewed trade tensions and geopolitical jitters. The S&P 500 ETF hovered near record highs around $617, rebounding from earlier dips despite worries over tariffs and global conflicts.1
A major catalyst was the partial trade accord reached in late June between the U.S. and China, aimed at speeding up rare-earth exports—a key step given China’s dominance in those minerals.2 This upbeat tone spilled over into global markets, sending European and Asian shares higher. However, investors remained cautious because the deal lacked detailed terms, and ongoing tariff levels remained high.3
Bonds rallied during this period. The 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield slid to around 4.25%, its lowest in two months, boosted by weak economic signals and talk of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts later in the year.
Oil prices took a hit mid‑June amid peace efforts in the Middle East, but by month-end, concerns about global supply and healthy U.S. demand pushed WTI crude into the low $80s per barrel. Gold, meanwhile, softened slightly to roughly $3,300 per ounce, as investors returned to riskier assets.
Currency markets saw the U.S. dollar dip against the euro and yen, reflecting softer yields and easing trade activity. The Chinese yuan remained stable around 7.20 per dollar, even as U.S. imports from China plunged and Canada faced renewed steel and aluminum tariffs.4
Finally, tariffs remained a core theme. Beyond the rare-earth shipment pact, the U.S. doubled tariffs on steel and aluminum from most countries (except the U.K.) to 50% on June 4, prompting threats of retaliation from Canada . While markets cheered trade truce hopes, underlying conflict—including growing retail price pressures—continued to limit sentiment.
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Investor Takeaway
Markets proved resilient in late June, buoyed by trade improvement and easing economic concerns. Still, high tariff levels, weak exports, and supply chain pressures suggest that volatility may persist. With the rare-earth deal in place, trade negotiations ongoing, and central bank policy in focus, investors should remain alert as the market digests each new development.
- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-08/asian-stocks-to-advance-on-trade-talks-jobs-data-markets-wrap ↩︎
- https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jun/27/us-china-rare-earth-shipments-deal ↩︎
- https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-latest-trade-truce-with-us-leaves-investors-none-wiser-2025-06-11 ↩︎
- https://www.investors.com/news/mp-materials-fcx-china-rare-earth-export-controls-copper-trump-tariffs ↩︎
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